Obama Faces a Critical Moment for His
Presidency
Published: September 7, 2009, New York Times
WASHINGTON — President
Obama returned to the White House from his summer break on Sunday determined
to jump-start his struggling presidency by reasserting command of the health
care debate and recalibrating expectations that some advisers believe got away
from him.
With his honeymoon seemingly over and his White House on the defensive, Mr.
Obama faces what friends and foes alike call a make-or-break moment in his young
administration. Because he has elevated health care to such a singular priority,
advisers said he must force through a credible plan or risk crippling his
presidency.
gIt goes without saying that a lot is riding now on his ability to
re-energize the health care debate and bring it home to a successful
conclusion,h said John
D. Podesta, who ran Mr. Obamafs transition and still advises him on health
care, energy and other issues. gNothing will influence the perception of the
presidency more than whether he can be successful in getting a health care bill
through the Congress.h
Recognizing the stakes, Mr. Obama has worked on a strategy for autumn to
regain the initiative. He talked on Thursday from Camp David with Nancy
Pelosi, the House speaker, and Harry M. Reid, the Senate majority leader. He
spent part of Sunday working on this weekfs speech to the nation and dispatched
top surrogates to the talk shows to try to reframe the health care debate. And
he has two meetings scheduled for Monday with his health policy and political
advisers planned around a trip to Cincinnati to observe Labor
Day.
As much as health care has consumed the president, other vexing issues await
him in the fall. In the coming weeks, he will decide whether to order thousands
more troops to Afghanistan and pursue new sanctions against Iran. He will host a
meeting of the Group
of 20 nations to spur the world economy and push forward with arms control
negotiations with Russia.
Now, as he prepares for Wednesdayfs address before a joint session of
Congress, Mr. Obama and his team are simultaneously trying to figure out how
they got into this dilemma and how to get out of it. An administration that
swept into office just seven months ago on a wave of hope and optimism has
burned through good will and public patience in swift fashion and now finds
itself under fire from both the left and the right.
He faces a crisis of expectations tough to manage. Can he form a health care
compromise that satisfies both his liberal base and fiscal conservatives in his
own party, much less the other one? Can he stanch the slide in support for the
war in Afghanistan even as he considers sending more troops? Can he soothe
discontent with an economy that appears to have bottomed out but remains
moribund? Can he change the tenor of debate in a capital that seems as polarized
as ever?
gTo govern is to make choices, and to make choices is to make some unhappy,h
David
Axelrod, the presidentfs senior adviser, said in an interview. gHe made some
very tough decisions that pulled us awayh from a new Great Depression. gBut he
had to expend some political capital to do that. Hefs expending some capital to
do something thatfs very important, which is to bring security and health care
to people who donft have it.h
Some Republicans said Mr. Obamafs fundamental mistake was believing his
election presaged a larger ideological shift in the country. gIf they thought
that his popularity and the good will he had would support liberal policies,
they were wrong,h said Charles R. Black, a Republican strategist who worked last
year for Senator John
McCain of Arizona, Mr. Obamafs Republican presidential opponent.
White House officials have signaled that they are prepared to scale back
their aspirations for the health care legislation. In private conversations,
some said they would be happy even if they end up with a pared-back program that
can serve as a basis for future efforts.
One element clearly on the table is a proposed government-backed health
insurance plan to compete with private insurers. Just as they have in recent
weeks, White House officials indicated Sunday that Mr. Obama would continue to
push for the so-called public option but they did not make it a condition of
signing whatever bill lands on his desk.
Mr. Axelrod, appearing on NBCfs
gMeet the Press,h said the public option gis a valuable toolh but added that git
shouldnft define the whole health care debate.h Robert
Gibbs, the White House press secretary, said on ABCfs gThis Week With George
Stephanopoulosh that Mr. Obama would gdraw some lines in the sandh on
Wednesday but gI doubt wefre going to get into heavy veto threats.h
The conundrum for the president, though, was on display during a roundtable
discussion later on the same program. Robert Dole, the former Republican senator
from Kansas and onetime presidential nominee, said a public option would never
pass the Senate. Representative Maxine
Waters, Democrat of California and a leader of Congressional liberals, said
no plan could pass with House without a public option.
Mr. Obama is hardly the first president to run into trouble after the bunting
and balloons have vanished, but his slipping support has fueled a narrative
about a young and relatively inexperienced president who overinterpreted his
mandate and overreached in his policies. His job approval rating has fallen to
56 percent from 62 percent since February in polls taken by The New York Times
and CBS News. Other surveys register an even sharper drop.
But his overall standing with the public is still healthy, and his first
seven months have not been as rocky as those of Bill
Clinton or Gerald
R. Ford. Mr. Clinton, at least, later recovered enough to win re-election.
And Mr. Obama showed during last yearfs campaign that he has the capacity to
ride out rough moments. If he ultimately gets some form of health care program
passed that he can call a victory, this turbulence may ultimately be
forgotten.
Vin Weber, a former Republican congressman from Minnesota, said the backlash
to Mr. Obamafs spending and health care proposals had eroded his support but not
fundamentally shifted the nationfs politics. gThe American people are sort of
returning to where they were,h he said. gI donft think theyfve made a big swing
to the right. Theyfre returning to their centrist moorings.h
Of all the challenges Mr. Obama faces this fall, health care has come to
dominate so much that the fate of the rest of his domestic program, particularly
climate
change legislation and new regulations on the financial industry, may depend
in part on whether he wins this fight.
gHefs gone all in,h said Matt Bennett, vice president of Third Way, a
Democratic-oriented advocacy organization, using a poker term. gEveryonefs
watching. The bets are all on the table. And wefre just waiting to see what the
cards say.h
A version of this article appeared in print
on September 7, 2009, on page A8 of the New York edition.